These odds are the result of monte carlo simulations of the 2006 TopCoder Open, using rating as a coder's mean performance, and volatility for standrad deviation.
Disclaimer: actual performance is not a standard normal distribution about rating with a standard deviation of volatility, which these simulations assume. Therefore, these odds are bogus, but fun nonetheless.
Note that expected earnings does not include earnings from the TopCoder Complete Coder Incentive Program, nor do they include room winner earnings from earlier rounds.